Here is something to wonder. How effective can an SEO consultant be if s/he doesn't have a large platform of proof to show their SEO tactics work?

I think that is what Google's whole plan is, by undermining people's confidence in the ability of SEO, to undermine the actual industry of it.

Do you think this might actually hurt online advertising too? With less information to go on, they really won't know what site is getting the most visitors for their desired keyword....

I'm sure Google would love that as well. At the end of the day, all paid link advertising is is a form of SEO manipulation.

I have convinced myself to only one SEO technique lately, have readers stay on your article for longer time and the article will gradually move up in Google ranking, often this doesn't require additional social sharing, though sharing would accelerate the ascent, no doubt.

Just two cents from self-experience.

Sam likes to say that the SEO field is dead. It looks like he may have a point. I just saw this article that says that Google is going one step further than just shaking up their algorithms to make them harder to guess. Now it seems they are actively obfuscating their results to make it harder to guess how you are ranking.

Of course, the major downside I see here is they are actually making their results less relevant. If they think a page is third best for a search term but show it in the number 12 spot, it's going to get fewer clicks then it deserves. In the other direction, and more harmful to their reputation, if they rank something at 15 but show it in the forth spot they are highlighting less relevant content over better matches.

Google Transition Ranking and Extreme Index Changes

Sounds interesting and I'll be interested to see how much buzz this gets as it picks up steam.  It's interesting that they give the example about how Google will basically toy with you to see how you react.  I definitely think that's targeting those who are trying to game the system, but it only helps all of us whose main goal is to provide valuable, well written content.  If we write well, link to good sites, provide informational content, and all, in the end we will be exactly where we should be. 

Of course, the major downside I see here is they are actually making their results less relevant. If they think a page is third best for a search term but show it in the number 12 spot, it's going to get fewer clicks then it deserves. In the other direction, and more harmful to their reputation, if they rank something at 15 but show it in the forth spot they are highlighting less relevant content over better matches.

Google Transition Ranking and Extreme Index Changes