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Will The Stock Market Go UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS?

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4:23 pm
September 10, 2013


Money Reasons

Admin

posts 697

Post edited 7:05 pm – September 10, 2013 by Money Reasons


Sometimes I can guess on which way the stock market will go… but I'm having a hard time figuring out what to do for the next few months…

 

Congress, Country Conflicts, and Chaos has me torn.

 

My mind tells me to take some profit now (maybe 50%) while the market is at a near high, but will I miss another 10% rise, and perhaps I should really be looking overseas for greater growth potential?

 

So, what does everybody else think?  Will the Stock Market go UP… DOWN… or SIDEWAYS (or go foreign) for the rest of the 2013 year?

8:19 am
September 11, 2013


Matt – Mom and Dad Money

Member

posts 68

Sorry to be blunt, but trying to predict the short-term direction of the stock market is a futile exercise at best, harmful at worst. You'll be much better off picking a stable asset allocation that meets your desire for return and your tolerance for risk and sticking with it through the ups and downs. Rebalance when necessary, but otherwise leave it alone.

9:00 am
September 11, 2013


MoneyBeagle

Member

posts 1466

Will The Stock Market Go UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS?

Yes.

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10:47 am
September 11, 2013


Money Reasons

Admin

posts 697

Matt – Mom and Dad Money said:

Sorry to be blunt, but trying to predict the short-term direction of the stock market is a futile exercise at best, harmful at worst. You'll be much better off picking a stable asset allocation that meets your desire for return and your tolerance for risk and sticking with it through the ups and downs. Rebalance when necessary, but otherwise leave it alone.

 

Hi Matt, nice to become acquainted with you.

 

My entire investing life has been an experiment in the stock market (bonds too of course…), and the investing route you point out above is a good one and for most of the folk that aren't an investing geek like me, very followable and doable…

 

That said, there are a few of us who have done well not following the general stock market advice put forth by most non-investing personal finance authors.  For instance, Evan from My Journey to Millions has a knack for crushing the market (this is based off of various contests in the past that Evan I were in) and he also has a extraordinary sense of the way the stock market winds are blowing.

 

Personally, while I don't play speculative stocks in my 401k (my employer's 401k plan is unique in that I can trade stocks in it… booyah!) where the bulk of my money is, I do play a speculative position in my Roth IRA and I'm pretty happy with the performance.  It's not easy though and I went through a phase earlier where I did poorly in the market too (most people do, as most don't know how to ride a bike at first either). 

 

So back to my question, I have an idea where the market is going, but I was hoping to hear from the investing folks in Yakezie… like JT McGee (MoneyMamba.com), Evan or others that play in the stock market. 

 

Thanks for responding and making me reflect and I would like to say that for me personally it hasn't been that futile.

10:50 am
September 11, 2013


Money Reasons

Admin

posts 697

MoneyBeagle said:

Will The Stock Market Go UP, DOWN or SIDEWAYS?

Yes.

You are correct… it will do all three Wink  So choice D if this were a quiz would be correct (D of course would be all of the above since A, B and C would be Up, Down, and Sideways).

 

Hope you are doing well, other Money-Domain-named blogger Cool

5:50 am
September 13, 2013


Money Reasons

Admin

posts 697

Opps, I had this post in the Yakezie Carnival thread…  Just moved it to Bloggers Lair. 

6:38 am
September 13, 2013


LaTisha @YoungFinances

Admin

posts 1715

Lots of uncertainty right now especially with tapering expected to start in the next month.

I would say for the remainder of the year up. My educated guess is based on the notions that the fear from the June 19th speech is already baked into the market. Short sellers seem to be backing off and momentum plays a huge role when there is fear in the market. 

What stocks/industries will be rewarded is another question. My first assumption would be cyclicals and domestic small caps.

 

Emerging markets got hit pretty bad after the talks of tapering so it may be a good time to get back in at a low if the stocks you are looking at are still fundamentally sound.

 

"Be greedy when others are fearful."- Warren Buffet (I'd say that quote is pretty appropriate right now)

 

Disclaimer: These are my personal opinions only and should not be taken as investment advice for your personal portfolio. 

LaTisha 

Young Adult Finances

Most Popular Post: I Have a Confession, I Don't Have a Budget

7:30 am
September 13, 2013


MoneyIsTheRoot

Member

posts 1456

Money Reasons said:

Matt – Mom and Dad Money said:

Sorry to be blunt, but trying to predict the short-term direction of the stock market is a futile exercise at best, harmful at worst. You'll be much better off picking a stable asset allocation that meets your desire for return and your tolerance for risk and sticking with it through the ups and downs. Rebalance when necessary, but otherwise leave it alone.

 

Hi Matt, nice to become acquainted with you.

 

My entire investing life has been an experiment in the stock market (bonds too of course…), and the investing route you point out above is a good one and for most of the folk that aren't an investing geek like me, very followable and doable…

 

That said, there are a few of us who have done well not following the general stock market advice put forth by most non-investing personal finance authors.  For instance, Evan from My Journey to Millions has a knack for crushing the market (this is based off of various contests in the past that Evan I were in) and he also has a extraordinary sense of the way the stock market winds are blowing.

 

Personally, while I don't play speculative stocks in my 401k (my employer's 401k plan is unique in that I can trade stocks in it… booyah!) where the bulk of my money is, I do play a speculative position in my Roth IRA and I'm pretty happy with the performance.  It's not easy though and I went through a phase earlier where I did poorly in the market too (most people do, as most don't know how to ride a bike at first either). 

 

So back to my question, I have an idea where the market is going, but I was hoping to hear from the investing folks in Yakezie… like JT McGee (MoneyMamba.com), Evan or others that play in the stock market. 

 

Thanks for responding and making me reflect and I would like to say that for me personally it hasn't been that futile.

Hmmmm Im curious as to why you want to know the direction of the overall market rather than the direction of specific stocks, or at the very least a certain sector.  It is true that the overall market is an indicator for all stocks, but I find that my portfolio can often move in the opposite direction lol.

 

I like dividend paying stocks… JNJ and ADP are my two favs and have done great for me the past few years.  I would go with them in a time of uncertainty, which is what it sounds like you have now.

 

On the other hand, there are certain stocks Im high on at the moment!  For instance, JPM…yes, they are a dividend paying stock, but thats not why I invested in them.  I actually started investing in them last year when that whole $2B portfolio error (literally a drop in a bucket for them) came to light and the media caused investor panic…best time to buy in my opinion :)

 

Another stock I'm high on is DDD….3D printing isn't a new idea, but it is new to the average consumer… and personal 3D printing machines are going to become more popular.  The best part about this, they are already turning a profit!  If you can turn a profit in a market that hasn't "blown up" yet, then I am highly confident in their potential.

 

Unfortunately I bought high on GM when I shouldve bought Tesla…and I bought high on Facebook when I shouldve purchased Linked In…so take my advice with a grain of salt lol.

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1:02 pm
September 13, 2013


Money Reasons

Admin

posts 697

LaTisha @YoungFinances said:

Lots of uncertainty right now especially with tapering expected to start in the next month.

I would say for the remainder of the year up. My educated guess is based on the notions that the fear from the June 19th speech is already baked into the market. Short sellers seem to be backing off and momentum plays a huge role when there is fear in the market. 

What stocks/industries will be rewarded is another question. My first assumption would be cyclicals and domestic small caps.

 

Emerging markets got hit pretty bad after the talks of tapering so it may be a good time to get back in at a low if the stocks you are looking at are still fundamentally sound.

 

"Be greedy when others are fearful."- Warren Buffet (I'd say that quote is pretty appropriate right now)

 

Disclaimer: These are my personal opinions only and should not be taken as investment advice for your personal portfolio. 

Hi Latisha,

 

Great analysis!

 

Tapering still bothers me a bit, but it would be a temporary hit most likely. 

 

What really worries me are two points…

1.) Congress still have to approve the debt limit stuff, (they are such slackers lol)

2.) My 401k gains in my 10 year trend analysis looks parabolic, which troubles me a bit.  While I don't do tech analysis, I believe there is a pattern that the market abides by to some degree.

 

But on the other hand,

1.) The gains we have to-date are just a little over the 2000 highs, so perhaps there is still room to run.

2.) There is optimism about China, Europe, and our GDP, somehow…

 

thanks for the great response Smile

Don

 

I'm going to say that same as you in that these are my opinions and I'm not recommending or claiming my opinions as a basis for making any decision in the stock market or anywhere else.

1:13 pm
September 13, 2013


Money Reasons

Admin

posts 697

MoneyIsTheRoot said:

Money Reasons said:

Matt – Mom and Dad Money said:

Sorry to be blunt, but trying to predict the short-term direction of the stock market is a futile exercise at best, harmful at worst. You'll be much better off picking a stable asset allocation that meets your desire for return and your tolerance for risk and sticking with it through the ups and downs. Rebalance when necessary, but otherwise leave it alone.

 

Hi Matt, nice to become acquainted with you.

 

My entire investing life has been an experiment in the stock market (bonds too of course…), and the investing route you point out above is a good one and for most of the folk that aren't an investing geek like me, very followable and doable…

 

That said, there are a few of us who have done well not following the general stock market advice put forth by most non-investing personal finance authors.  For instance, Evan from My Journey to Millions has a knack for crushing the market (this is based off of various contests in the past that Evan I were in) and he also has a extraordinary sense of the way the stock market winds are blowing.

 

Personally, while I don't play speculative stocks in my 401k (my employer's 401k plan is unique in that I can trade stocks in it… booyah!) where the bulk of my money is, I do play a speculative position in my Roth IRA and I'm pretty happy with the performance.  It's not easy though and I went through a phase earlier where I did poorly in the market too (most people do, as most don't know how to ride a bike at first either). 

 

So back to my question, I have an idea where the market is going, but I was hoping to hear from the investing folks in Yakezie… like JT McGee (MoneyMamba.com), Evan or others that play in the stock market. 

 

Thanks for responding and making me reflect and I would like to say that for me personally it hasn't been that futile.

Hmmmm Im curious as to why you want to know the direction of the overall market rather than the direction of specific stocks, or at the very least a certain sector.  It is true that the overall market is an indicator for all stocks, but I find that my portfolio can often move in the opposite direction lol.

 

I like dividend paying stocks… JNJ and ADP are my two favs and have done great for me the past few years.  I would go with them in a time of uncertainty, which is what it sounds like you have now.

 

On the other hand, there are certain stocks Im high on at the moment!  For instance, JPM…yes, they are a dividend paying stock, but thats not why I invested in them.  I actually started investing in them last year when that whole $2B portfolio error (literally a drop in a bucket for them) came to light and the media caused investor panic…best time to buy in my opinion :)

 

Another stock I'm high on is DDD….3D printing isn't a new idea, but it is new to the average consumer… and personal 3D printing machines are going to become more popular.  The best part about this, they are already turning a profit!  If you can turn a profit in a market that hasn't "blown up" yet, then I am highly confident in their potential.

 

Unfortunately I bought high on GM when I shouldve bought Tesla…and I bought high on Facebook when I shouldve purchased Linked In…so take my advice with a grain of salt lol.

I was just curious about the movement in the US stock market.  During the recession around the 2000 timeframe, I had a stock that kept steady and rose.  It was a very sweat experience, but a small position all the same.  During the "Great Recession" I wasn't so luck, but I increase my contributions to get the max dollar cost averaging, so in the end it too was very sweet for me.

 

Good stock mentions!  I'm trying to stay away from talking about stocks because of my employer.  But I will say I'm familiar with them…

 

Tesla reminds me a bit of Tulips (as in the Tulip mania of the 1600s)…  Elon Musk is my "new" hero (no sarcasm either!)

 

I literally owned half of the stock that you mentioned above and I'm familiar with the other half too.

 

Thanks for the great insights, I like to hear other thoughts than just my own.

 

have a good weekend,

Don

1:33 pm
September 13, 2013


LaTisha @YoungFinances

Admin

posts 1715

Yeah, the debt limit is an issue but it's something that has been a fear in the past and was solved. Even if it was the last minute. So I think in that case, the markets can pull from history to assume what may happen so there's less uncertainty there.

 

For the 401k gains, I'd say that depends on your ultimate goal and outlook. I honestly feel like we're at an historical low and I'd be willing to keep buying. But I have a little under 40 years before I think about pulling retirement funds.

 

I'm definitely seeing the optimism surrounding China (fears of hard landing subsiding), Europe ("whatever it takes") and our own GDP doing better than expected.

 

I'd have to say overall I'm cautiously optimistic 

LaTisha 

Young Adult Finances

Most Popular Post: I Have a Confession, I Don't Have a Budget

9:38 am
October 3, 2013


Money Reasons

Admin

posts 697

Okay, for now it looks like it's going down and in theory, this should be an opportunity to slip back in soon, to take advantage of the rise in the future.  Hopefully it won't last more than a few more days or a week at the most. 

I only took about about 30% (I was initially going to do 20% but I like to have the amounts I own to be in even allotments or end in zero, strange but an small habit that I follow…) in my Roth IRA to try an play this. 

 

Like Latisha said though, the market should end up higher at the end of the year, so I'm not going to stay out for long. 

 

The rest of my accounts I left alone, to ride the typical (or atypical) stock market cycling in this case.

 

P.S. I think gold isn't rising because nobody thinks this government induced problem will last… just another speed bump in the process of the equities market.

5:12 pm
October 10, 2013


Barbara Friedberg

Member

posts 1302

No one can predict the stock market. You have to be right twice, once when you sell and once when you decide to get back in.

 

Choose an asset allocation you're comfortable with. Populate the asset classes with index funds and invest regularly. You'll be okay in the long run.

 

For sample asset class portfolios, check out lazy portfolios at cbs moneywatch http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio

 

I'm also doing a series on asset class investing now if you would like to check it out.

5:12 pm
October 10, 2013


Barbara Friedberg

Member

posts 1302

No one can predict the stock market. You have to be right twice, once when you sell and once when you decide to get back in.

 

Choose an asset allocation you're comfortable with. Populate the asset classes with index funds and invest regularly. You'll be okay in the long run.

 

For sample asset class portfolios, check out lazy portfolios at cbs moneywatch http://www.marketwatch.com/lazyportfolio

 

I'm also doing a series on asset class investing now if you would like to check it out.

6:12 pm
October 10, 2013


bryce

Member

posts 40

@Money Reasons, here is what a lot of experts say about market timing:

 

"The stock market will fluctuate, but you can't pinpoint when it will tumble or shoot up. If you have allocated your assets properly and have sufficient emergency money, you shouldn't need to worry." (AAII Guide to Mutual Funds)

"Endless tinkering is unlikely to improve performance, and chasing last period's stellar achiever is a losing strategy." (Frank Armstrong, author and adviser)

"It must be apparent to intelligent investors–if anyone possessed the ability to do so (market time) he would become a billionaire quickly." (David Babson, author, adviser)

"What it really takes to improve your returns and diminish your risks is a willingness to stop focusing exclusively on the movement of the markets." (Baer & Ginsler, The Great Mutual Fund Trap)

"If we haven't said it enough, we'll say it again: Market timing is dangerous." (Barron's Guide to Making Investment Decisions.)

"Only liars manage to always be "out" during bad times and "in' during good times. (Bernard Baruch, famed investor)

"Market timing recommendations have an impressive track record of being harmful to an investor's financial health." (Peter Bernstein, author, researcher)

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know." (Wm Bernstein, author and adviser)

In January 2008, only 2 out of 248 Bogleheads, forecast how low the S&P 500 Index would fall that year (Boglehead Contest)

"If you're determined to succeed at investing, make it your first priority to become a buy-and-hold investor." (Jack Brennan in Straight Talk on Investing)

"When you give up the hope that some adviser, some system, some source of inside tips is going to give you a shortcut to wealth, you'll finally begin to gain control over your financial future." (Harry Browne, author)

"For the 12 years ending 1997, while the S&P rose 734% on a total return basis, the average return for 186 tactical asset-allocation mutual funds was a mere 384%." (Buckingham Financial Services)

"We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good." (Warren Buffet)

"Market timing is an ineffective strategy for mutual fund investors." (CDA/Wiesenberger)

"Any investment method that relies on predicting the future is doomed to fail." (Chandan & Sengupta, financial authors)

"A successful investor has a good knowledge base, a well-defined investment plan, and nerves of steel to stick with it." (Andrew Clarke, financial author)

"Most investors are unable to profitably time the market and are left with equity fund returns lower than inflation." (2003 Dalber Study)

"Take my word on it. Buy-and-hold is still your best long-run strategy." (Jonathan Clements, author & journalist)

"The buy and hold equity investor (S&P 500) would have earned a return of 8.35% for the 20 years ending 12/08, while the market-timer would have earned just 1.87%." (Dalbar research)

"Market-timing is bunk." (Pat Dorsey, M* Director of Fund Analysis."

"The performance of 185 tactical asset allocation mutual funds was compared with buy-and-hold strategies and equity mutual funds over the years 1985-97. Over this period the S&P 500 Index increased 734%, average equity funds increased 598%, and tactical asset allocation funds increased 384%." (David Dreman, author)

"Market timing is a wicked idea. Don't try it-ever." (Charles Ellis, author of The Loser's Game)

"Do nothing. I think all of this market timing is statistically unfounded. I don't trust it. You may avoid a downturn, but you may also miss the rise. Choose the risk tolerance you're OK with and hold tight." (Professor Eugene Fama)

"Forget market timing in any form." (Paul Farrell, (CBS Marketwatch.com)

"The best practice for investors is to design a long-term globally diversified asset allocation based on present and future financial needs. Then follow that plan religiously, through all markets good and bad." (Rick Ferri, author and adviser)

"Benjamin Graham spent much of his career trying to devise a good formula for when to get into–and out of–the stock market. All formulas, he concluded, failed." (Forbes, 12-27-99)

"Let's say it clearly: No one knows where the market is going-experts or novices, soothsayers or astrologers. That's the simple truth. Fortune

"Don't sell out of fear or buy out of greed. Just keep making investments, and let the market take its course over the long-term." (Norman Fosback, author, researcher)

"We have two classes of forecasters: those who don't know-and those who don't know they don't know." (John Kenneth Galbraith, Economist)

"I've learned that market timing can ruin you." (Elaine Garzarelli, a once famed market-timer)

"Staying on course may be just as difficult in bull markets as in bear markets." (Good & Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success)

"For most investors the odds favor a buy-and-hold strategy." (Carol Gould, author & financial columnist)

"If I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people do not succeed in forecasting that's going to happen to the stock market." (Benjamin Graham)

"From June 1980 through December 1992, 94.5% of 237 market timing investment newsletters had gone out of business." (Graham/Campbell Study)

"Your very refusal to be active, and your renunciation of any pretended ability to predict the future, can become your most powerful weapon." (Graham & Zweig, The Intelligent Investor)

"The best advice: buy and hold." (John Haslem, author and researcher)

"Even in a bear market, market-timing and actively managed mutual funds generally hurt investment performance more than they help it." (Mark Hulbert, N.Y.Times columnist)

"After receiving the Nobel Prize, Daniel Kahneman, was asked by a CNBC anchorman what investment tips he had for viewers. His answer: "Buy and hold."

"I am not a trader, and don't believe in trying to time the market or outguess the short-term fluctuations." (Lawrence Kudlow, CNBC)

"Timing the market is for losers. Time IN the market will get you to the winner's circle, and you'll sleep better at night." (Michael Leboeuf, author)

"No one is smart enough to time the market's ups and downs." (Arthur Levitt, former SEC chairman)

"Markets will go up and they'll go down over your investing lifetime, but it's time in the market that counts, not market timing." (Mel Lindauer, author and Forbes columnist)

"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting." (Jesse Livermore, author & famed investor)

"Nobody can predict interest rates, the future direction of the economy or the stock market." (Peter Lynch)

"Buying-and-holding a broad-based market index fund is still the only game in town." (Burton Malkiel, author of classic Random Walk Down Wall Street)

"At the peak of the bull market in March of 2000 only 0.7% of all recommendations on stocks issued by Wall Street brokerages and investment banks were to "Sell." (Miami Herald, 1-26-03)

"If you can't handle the short term, if the uncertainty is stressful and the headlines are unbearable, then the markets are too hot for you: get out of the kitchen." (Moshe Milevsky, author & researcher)

"Timing is public enemy number one in investing." (John Montgomery, Mutual fund manager)

"We're not keen on market-timing. It just doesn't work." (Morningstar Course 106)

"We've yet to find anyone who can accurately and consistently predict the market's short-term moves." (Motley Fools)

"In 1999, 70% of day traders sustained losses that wiped out their accounts." (North American Securities Administrators Association)

"The most active traders earned 7% less annually than buy-and-hold investors." (Odean & Barber study of 66,400 investors)

"Forget trying to time the market and do something productive instead." (Gerald Perritt, financial author)

"The market timer's Hall of Fame is an empty room." (Jane Bryant Quinn)

"Countless studies have proved that no one is able to time the market effectively." (Mary Roland, author & journalist)

"Trading is based on the rather arrogant belief that the trader knows more than the buyers and sellers with whom he is trading." (Ron Ross, The Unbeatable Market)

"In the long run it doesn't matter much whether your timing is great or lousy. What matters is that you stay invested." (Louis Rukeyser, TV host)

"For the 10 years that ended 12-31-2000, only one newsletter out of the 112 that Timers Digest follows managed to beat the S&P 500 Benchmark." (Jim Schmidt, editor)

"What do I really think is going to happen? — I have absolutely no idea. (John Schoen, senior producer for msnbc.com)

"I have learned the hard way that market timing and trying to pick a fund that will out-perform the market are both losing strategies." (Bill Schultheis, author and adviser)

"I'm a strong advocate of buying and holding." (Charles Schwab)

"It turns out that I should have just bought them (securities), and thereafter I should have just sat on them like a fat, stupid peasant." (Fred Schwed Jr., Where are the Customers' Yachts?)

"If you are not going to stick to your chosen investment method through thick and thin, there is almost no chance of your succeeding as an investor. (Chandan Sengupta, financial author)

"Investors should look with a jaundiced eye at any market timing system being peddled by its guru-creator." (W. Scott Simon, financial author)

"Investors desperately want to believe they can time the markets, but the statistics tell an entirely different story." (Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab Chief Investment Strategist)

"Buying and holding a few broad market index funds is perhaps the most important move ordinary investors can make to supercharge their portfolios." (Stein & DeMuth, (authors & adviser)

"It's my belief that it's a waste of time to try to time any market decline, or try to pinpoint a market bottom." (James Stewart, Smart Money columnist)

"It's a staple of personal finance advice: Buy-and-hold, because trading the stock market is a sucker's bet." Larry Swedroe, author and adviser.

"People should stop chasing performance and just put together a sensible portfolio regardless of the ups and downs of the market." (David Swensen, Yale Investments)

"Trust in time and forget market-timing. Allow time to work its compounding magic for you. Let market-timing inflict its miseries on someone else." (Tweddell & Pierce, financial authors)

"Stay invested. Not only does buy-and-hold investing offer better returns, but it's also less work." (Eric Tyson, author of Mutual Funds for Dummies)"

"Few if any investors manage to be consistently successful in timing markets." (Wall Street Journal Lifetime Guide to Money)

"If you're considering doing your own market timing, the best advice is this: Don't." (John Waggoner, USA Today financial columnist)

"From 1963-1993 stocks returned an annual average of 11.83% for time in the market. Conversely timing the market or trading returned an average of 3.28%." (University of Michigan survey)

"If you buy, and then hold a total-stock-market index fund, it is mathematically certain that you will outperform the vast majority of all other investors in the long run." (Jason Zweig, author and Wall Street Journal columnist)

"I do not know of anybody who has done it (market timing) successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." (Jack Bogle)

8:24 pm
October 10, 2013


LaTisha @YoungFinances

Admin

posts 1715

That's a very extensive and impressive list of quotes but it misses the entire argument.

There is a place for active investing and passive investing. If everyone became a passive investor then there would be plenty of inefficiencies to exploit. In comes the active investor. Once the market fills with active investors, passive investors win because of the increased volatility.

There's a difference between timing the markets and rebalancing or taking advantage of temporary dips and highs. It's done all the time and with success by sophisticated investors. Yes, the average investor should probably be in passive funds. But the above average investor has the opportunity to benefit from their information/knowledge/skill advantage.

LaTisha 

Young Adult Finances

Most Popular Post: I Have a Confession, I Don't Have a Budget


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